This month’s open thread on climate topics. Many eyes will be focused on whether April temperatures will be the 11th month in row of records… Note that we have updated the data and figures from the Nenana Ice Classic and Dawson City river ice break up pools (the nominal 13th and 5th earliest break-ups (or 15th and 4th, w.r.t. to the vernal...

There has been a lot of commentary about perceived disagreements among climate scientists about whether climate change is, or will soon, accelerate. As with most punditry, there is less here than it might seem. Last year, Jim Hansen and colleagues published a long paper that included a figure suggesting that they expected that global...

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Lots more discussion about 2023, aerosols, heat content and imbalances to come I expect… Note, comments should be substantive even if you are arguing with who you perceive to be the worst person in the world. Comments that are mainly personal attacks will just get deleted. The post Unforced...

Going back a few months, I spent a bit of time pointing out the strategy and nonsense in the various Willie Soon and company’s efforts to blame current warming on solar activity. I specifically pointed out their cultish devotion to a single solar activity reconstruction (Hoyt and Schatten, 1993) (HS93); with an update from Scaffeta (2023), and their...

The month’s open thread on climate topics. More record monthly warmth, but only the second lowest Antarctic sea ice though (growing since 2023!). The post Unforced variations: March 2024 first appeared on RealClimate.

A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course.” The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here), but using...